The Donald Vs. Powell – When the Federal Reserve Is Politicized, Markets Grow Weary

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The Federal Reserve, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25bp to a range of 2% to 2.25%. One thing is emerging from Jay Powell, Fed’s Chair, and his way of conducting monetary policy – he doesn’t like to surprise the markets or go back on any policy message that he has already iterated…

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Will The Yield Curve Inversion Predict The Next Recession?

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The inversion of the yield curve has raised concerns in the media over the possibility of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Considering the inversion has been a reliable indicator during the past 40 years, it could be reckless not to pay attention to it. However, the U.S. bond market…

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Do Low Oil Prices Have a Net Gain or a Net Loss Effect on the U.S. Economy?

The short answer – it’s a wash, but it’s also complicated. This question has become more critical as the U.S. economy has been expanding its oil production in a couple of years. Currently, the U.S. produces more than 11.5 million barrels per day and is the world leading oil producer followed by Russia…

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Powell Is Stuck between an Orange Rock and the Market Place

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J. Powell, the Fed’s Chairman, faces a problem; perhaps the biggest challenge in his tenor so far. The financial markets – mainly equities in the U.S. – have signaled that they cannot and won’t stand another rate hike. Over the past three months, the plunge in equities’ prices has led market participants to…

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